According to the McKinsey Global Institute, over 350 million people will be moving from the countryside to the cities in China over the next 20 years (http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/china_urban_summary_of_findings.asp). Just try to imagine the entire population of the US relocating to apartment buildings in such a short time!
We see the evidence of this unbelievable process right at our doorstep. Every time we ride the bus, we pass by massive apartment projects – almost too many to count. Across the street from our complex (with white and yellow buildings) is a new project called Colorful Days II. As I have walked by it on the way to school for the past month, they have already dug the basements and built the foundations for the next four towers:
Here are a few more within a mile of our apartment:
Construction is everywhere, so you have to watch your step when crossing the streets (the big blue trucks don’t stop for pedestrians). And the dust is a constant challenge if you actually want to try to clean anything. Here’s a shot of Susan walking to the new apartment of a friend behind our school (a project with “only” 12 buildings):
I haven’t done the actual math, but I’d estimate that over a half million people will soon be living within a one-mile radius of our apartment. The needs and opportunities are staggering…
Do you know if the apartment buildings are built using private capital or gov’t subsidies? Either way, you have to wonder a bit if it’ll end up like Dubai — huge complexes with low occupancy rates.
I think they’re mostly privately funded, but the loose credit policy certainly provides some extra fuel. Demand appears to be driven by multiple factors: urban resettlement, government job expansion (in our city), family restructuring, and a high degree of speculative buying. That last one is the potential source of danger…